Week of 21st September

This week, I will be watching some french company stocks. I am bullish in most of these configurations. Lets review them:

GFI INFORMATIQUE: Interesting level close to 4.50. What is remarkable is the double bottom at 3.50, the validation point of the pattern is 4.85. If in the next days, the price close above 4.34, there is a high probability to test the 4.50 again (third attempt since the 15th August).

Resistance: 4.34 – 4.50 – 4.70 – 4.85

IMS INTL METAL SCE: By breaking the 15.4 level the 5th September, the sellers failed to maintain the selling pressure. A week later, Friday 12th September, the price is back at the important level of 15.4. Maybe its time for a little correction to the downtrend.

Resistance: 16 – 16.60

IPSOS: Friday 12th Sept, we had a buy signal.

Resistance: 23.50 – 24.50

 

PAGES JAUNES: Nice set up since the 11th August. Closing above 10 euros will be considerated as a buy signal and a confirmation of the pursuit of the rebound started the 17th July 2008.

 

CREDIT AGRICOLE: The price gap of the 5th June has been tested several time. We have to watch closely the price zone of 15 euros.

USD/RAND – Warning Level

Last year we talked about how the trend is positive. Almost a year later nothing have changed much, the USD/RAND is consolidating in a tight range and the volatility is minimum. 7,25 is the key level according to two technical’s elements:

- a descending line of resistance
- the upper weekly Bollinger bands

This level is critical, we will be watching the activity around 7,25. The probability for the rise to continue after this level is significant.

Mots clés Technorati : USD RAND Currencies Bollinger Resistance rise stock market

USD/RAND – Solid

From 24th september:

The bullish trend is getting stronger. 7.70 is for now a resistance but I doubt it will last long.

 The 29th september, 5 days later, the USD/RAND closed above 7.70. The current price is 7.8286. No Doubt, the trend is solid. Résistances: 8 – 8.34 / Supports: 7.53 – 6.95

EUR/USD – critical level

Both, daily and weekly charts, indicate the level reached friday is critical. In both period, the volatility is pretty tight. Most of the case, this situation often lead to an important mouvement. We have a bearish presignal in the daily chart, if this market is still bullish, the lowest traded price of friday must be a strong support for the forcoming days. If the market break down that level, the next support area will be 1.24 – 1.23.

Dow Jones – Technical Analysis

From the 26th september:

For today, our main concern for the strength of the rebound will be two key level: 11552 is an important support level, 11630 the main resistance.

The 26 September, at the close, the Dow Jones closed above the resistance we talked about earlier. Since then, the trend is solid, and the Dow continue to break record. This is one of the reason why technical analysis can be helpful: “the timing”.

No doubt, this market is strong and they seems to know what they are doing. There is no weakining sign or for now.

Dow Jones – how powerful is technical analysis

The bearish engulfing will be valid If a candlestick close under 11500. At the opposite, above 11572 (median of the bearish engulfing) the probability to reach again the last top and maybe go further will be increased. We are on the edge, If the market is really bullish there will be no struggle to bounce from the level we reached past friday. The sooner the better.

Above the paragraph I wrote the 24th september. Yesterday the Dow Jones closed at 11575, its not a coincidence. We had already spotted that area and the impact on the dynamic to the short term trend. The market did bounce but failed to stay above that critical level. Either way we still don’t have a strong signal from one side or another side.

For today, our main concern for the strength of the rebound will be two key level: 11552 is an important support level, 11630 the main resistance. There is a weakening pattern in intraday, but no signal. The pattern is a broadening triangle, not my favorite chartism pattern, but it worth keep watching it. The european market are pretty strong today (CAC40 +1.09% / DAX30 +0.74%), but the main news for today will hit the market at 4pm, the report on consumer confidence for september expected at 103.

US $ / Rand – Another record !

The USDZAR just retraced 23.60% of the downtrend from Dec 2001 to Dec 2004. Fibonacci level are used to spot resistance area. Its not always accurate but It help traders to be aware how far a retracement has gone. This is a pretty important barrier, It worked in the past (June 2006), and in technical analysis Its common to think the more a level is used, the more the level is noticed.

The bullish trend is getting stronger. 7.70 is for now a resistance but I doubt it will last long. All the technicals indicators (daily, weekly, monthly) are green. The next Fibonacci ratio (38.20%) is around 8.76. We are not there yet, lets follow on a daily basis how the trend develop.

Dow Jones 24 september

Since the Dow Jones broke the resistance 14888 the 12th september, by changing polarity that level is now a strong support area. The chart speak to itself: the candlesticks of the 13th, 19th, 22th sept. share the same low. Even if we have a bearish engulfing the 21th september we don’t have yet a strong signal of a trend reversal.

The bearish engulfing will be valid If a candlestick close under 11500. At the opposite, above 11572 (median of the bearish engulfing) the probability to reach again the last top and maybe go further will be increased. We are on the edge, If the market is really bullish there will be no struggle to bounce from the level we reached past friday. The sooner the better.